Saturday, May 25, 2013

9. Journal paper (2013); Exploring Gold Equivalency for Forecasting Steel Prices on Pipeline Projects

Abstract

The volatility of steel prices and international currency is an element that affects actual project costs. This situation can be mitigated by considering risk contingency as a fixed percentage of the total budget and/or by inputting an inflation factor into the cost estimation. These methods have not overcome the root problem, however, which is the decline in purchasing power of the US dollar as a base currency. As a result, an alternative currency with a stable and reliable value as a cost reference is needed.
 
This paper will explore the possibility of using gold as an alternative currency to be used in forecasting selected steel prices, i.e. billet, hot rolled coil and scrap steel as the main material components in pipeline projects. The reliability of gold in terms of purchasing power compared to the USD will be discussed together with how gold equivalency can be applied for selected steels to establish a gold-based forecasting model. Finally it will be explained how steel prices will refer to the gold price forecast for the next four years. These methods will change the paradigm for estimating the cost of pipeline projects and may be developedfor and applied to other projects.

Keywords: Steel Prices, Gold Price, Cost Estimation, US Dollar, Purchasing Power, Gold Equivalency, Price Forecast, Project Cost Engineering, Pipeline Project Cost.

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Seperti yang sudah saya singgung sebelumnya, ada 1 paper sebagai syarat sertifikasi CCE yang dikirimkan ke Journal untuk dipublikasikan. Dan bulan tengah mei ini, jurnal tersebut sudah dipublikasikan dimana paper saya termasuk salah satu di dalamnya. Paper ini adalah paper pertama saya yang masuk di PMWJ, dimana Dr. Paul G. Giammalvo sangat berperan dalam membimbing penyusunan paper ini.
 
Apa yang menarik dari paper ini? Jika pada paper city gas saya 'keluar' dari lingkup pekerjaan saya, kali ini saya masih dalam lingkup namun cukup teoritis atau 'sedikit akademis'. Artinya dalam keseharian, analisa seperti ini 'tidak sempat' saya lakukan. Namun dengan model dalam paper ini, secara sense bisa terbaca arah kondisi dunia yang terkait dengan pekerjaan saya dalam mengestimasi nilai proyek.
 
Paper lengkap bisa di download di PM World Journal Edisi May 2013. Sedikit welcoming notes dari Managing Editor PMWJ.
 
Lalu, bagaimana selanjutnya? Bersama 2 rekan yang lain, saya sedang menyiapkan 2 buah papers yang lolos untuk dipresentasikan di sebuah forum project management di Eropa Timur menjelang winter nanti. Karena masih mentah dan belum tentu juga saya berangkat (baca: perusahaan mau bayarin atau tidak hehe), jadi nanti kita lihat saja. Jika tidak berangkat ke conference tersebut, insyaAllah saya masih punya 'cadangan' 2 paper jadi dan siap 'berangkat'. :)
 

8. Conference paper (2013); The Operation-based CSR of Medco City Gas Program

Abstract

The CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) program has become a crucial issue for corporate sustainability in recent years. The new CSR approach has included the introduction of characteristics of sustainability adopted from ISO 26000. Integration of CSR with business operations is an essential factor but rarely implemented by oil & gas companies, even though they have a strong commitment to conduct CSR programs as part of their business process.

Furthermore, many CSR programs actually do not have a direct relationship with the actual oil & gas operations, and are executed on a spending basis only. In fact, particularly in developing countries, companies still face problems with their local communities, even when they have spent a lot of money on their CSR programs.

Community or city gas is a CSR program which can be implemented in the oil & gas industry. It follows the operation-integration paradigm and will deliver natural gas from the field operated by the company to the surrounding community. The community will therefore directly gain benefits from the company’s operations, while the company can convey its CSR program and maintain its profitability at the same time.

The “city gas” program implemented by Medco can be further enhanced, and similar programs in other fields can be established. This program shows that the company can therefore run an operation-based CSR effectively by integrating CSR within the company operation. The program is part of the company's efforts to implement the principles of triple-bottom-line economic, social and environmental considerations to cover all business activities and ensure their sustainability in the future.

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Sebagai kelanjutan dari tulisan tentang paper sebelumnya, saya akan menginfokan setiap ada informasi paper saya (sebagai author atau co-author) yang publihed.
 
Pada tanggal 15 - 17 Mei 2013 lalu, diadakan 37th IPA Conference & Exibition di JCC. Saya bersama 2 rekan saya mempublikasikan paper tentang implementasi gas kota yang dilakukan perusahaan di Kota Tarakan, seperti dalam abstrak diatas. Karena lokasi pekerjaan di Tarakan, maka yang mempresentasikan adalah rekan saya, facilities engineer disana. Dan saat tanya jawab, saya membantu menjawab pertanyaan yang diajukan audiences.
 
Sayangnya foto saat kami menjelaskan masih ada di panitia (belum tahu cara request-nya), jadi saya tampilkan foto yang lain saja disana (background-nya emiten yang sempat 'dimiliki' hehe).
 
 
Salah satu menariknya menulis paper (atau menulis secara umum) adalah kita akan punya ide baru ketika selesai menulis tersebut, baikn pengembangan tulisan tersebut atau analisa dari sudut pandang yang lain. Begitu pula paper tentang city gas tersebut, meskipun bukan bidang saya secara langsung, tapi potensi pengembangan tulisan tersebut masih lebar (artinya ada kesempatan publikasi lagi hehe). Namun, lagi-lagi kembali ke masalah niat dan persistensi. Ini yang seringkali mengalahkan ide-ide pengembangan tersebut.